"Mexico’s overall homicide rate thus hinges critically on whether drug violence will recede or worsen in the coming years. The Mexican government’s official tally of organized crime killings from January through September 2011 suggests that such violence increased by 11% from the same period in 2010. This estimated increase is roughly in proportion with the estimates by Reforma, which documented a 9.8% increase comparing the same time periods. These increases suggest that Mexico’s homicide rate for 2011 will rise, possibly pushing Mexico to the levels seen in Ecuador or even Panama, but still remaining low compared with the worst cases in Latin America.
"Meanwhile, Mexico’s 10-11% increase in 2011 constitutes an improvement in the trajectory of violence in Mexico. That is, the rate of increase in 2011 looks relatively good compared with the increases seen in 2008 (141.9%), 2009 (40.6%), and 2010 (58.8%). If violence in 2011 had increased at past rates, there would have been between 20,000 to 30,000 drug related homicides in a single year."


Molzahn, Cory; Rios, Viridiana; and Shirk, David A., "Drug Violence in Mexico: Data and Analysis Through 2011" (San Diego, CA: Trans-Border Institute, Joan B. Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego, March 2012), p. 13.