"In this emulated trial including more than 400 000 episodes of stable long-term opioid therapy, opioid tapering was associated with a small (0.15%) absolute increase in the risk of overdose or suicide events compared with a stable dosage during 11 months of follow-up. We did not identify a difference in the risk of overdose or suicide events between abrupt discontinuation and stable dosage, although the smaller number of episodes categorized as abrupt discontinuation may have reduced precision. The findings were robust to secondary and sensitivity analyses.

"The risk ratio of 1.15 for opioid overdose or suicide events associated with opioid tapering was smaller than in past studies conducted in other populations. This study examined commercially insured individuals receiving a stable long-term opioid dosage without evidence of opioid misuse. A large study of Veterans Health Administration patients estimated adjusted hazard ratios between 1.7 and 6.8 for the association of treatment discontinuation with suicide or overdose among patient subgroups defined by length of prior treatment.17 A study of Oregon Medicaid recipients found adjusted hazard ratios for suicide of 3.6 for discontinuation and 4.5 for tapering.18 A study using the same claims data set and similar definition of long-term opioid therapy as our study identified effect estimates between those in our study and those in prior studies, with an estimated adjusted incidence rate ratio of 1.3 for the association of dose tapering with overdose and 2.4 for the association of dose tapering with suicide attempts.32"


Larochelle MR, Lodi S, Yan S, Clothier BA, Goldsmith ES, Bohnert ASB. Comparative Effectiveness of Opioid Tapering or Abrupt Discontinuation vs No Dosage Change for Opioid Overdose or Suicide for Patients Receiving Stable Long-term Opioid Therapy. JAMA Netw Open. 2022;5(8):e2226523. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.26523