US Cocaine Seizure Effectiveness Rate

"Definition 

"Cocaine seizure effectiveness rate – The amount of cocaine seized by OFO [Office of Field Operations] at land POEs [Ports Of Entry] compared to the total estimated flow of cocaine through land POEs. Cocaine seizures are an output metric. Some analysts also treat seizures as a proxy indicator of total attempts to import cocaine, an outcome metric. Seizure effectiveness rate (i.e., cocaine seized as compared to the total estimated cocaine flow) is an output metric. 

"Methodology and Limitations 

"Seizure data are obtained from OFO administrative records and is considered reliable. Estimates of the total cocaine flow are provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).²² The U.S. Government does not have an estimate of the share of the total cocaine flow that passes through land POEs, but the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency’s National Drug Threat Assessment states that the Southwest Border remains the key entry point for the majority of the cocaine entering the United States. The DIA estimate is based on a U.S. Government estimate of cocaine departing South America towards the United States, and additionally incorporates estimates of cocaine movement, cocaine production, and U.S. consumption derived from various U.S. Government agencies. The estimated amount of cocaine available to enter the United States (estimated flow in Table 15) is derived by finding the difference between the estimated amount of cocaine departing South America toward the United States and the sum of documented cocaine removals, consumption in the Transit Zone, and documented departures from the Transit Zone towards non-United States destinations. 

"Available Data and Discussion 

"Total cocaine seizures increased 80 percent from 19,000 kilograms in 2020 to 35,000 kilograms in 2021. Total seizures in 2021 were 27 percent higher than the 2016 to 2020 average. Land seizures increased to 10,700 in 2021, a 17 percent increase from the 2016 to 2020 average. Estimated flow rose to 1,174,000 kilograms in 2021. Although the estimated flow of cocaine rose 10 percent from the 2016 to 2020 average, the seizure effectiveness rate increased to 2.98 percent from the 2016 to 2020 average of 2.69 percent."